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Sweeney, J. (2007). When Will the United States Invade Iran?. PHILICA.COM Article number 93.

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When Will the United States Invade Iran?

Jack Sweeneyconfirmed user (Foreign Affairs, Wuhan University of Technology)

Published in politi.philica.com

Abstract
Prior to the internet report, which originated from sources within Russian military intelligence services, American investigative journalist and Pulitzer Prize winner Seymour Hersh reported that American Special Operation Forces were already operating inside Iran in preparation for a possible air ground attack (New Yorker, 24 January 2005). Hersh reported that current and former officials told him that one of the options being considered by the Bush administration called ‘for the use of a bunker-buster tactical nuclear weapon, such as B61-11, against underground nuclear sites’. (New Yorker, 17 April 2005). Hersh wrote:
‘Current and former American military and intelligence officials said that Air Force planning groups are drawing up lists of targets, and teams of American combat troops have been ordered into Iran, under cover, to collect targeting data and to establish contact with anti-government ethnic-minority groups.’ (New Yorker, 17 April 2006).

Article body



By Jack Sweeney

During early 2007, there was widespread, global speculation that the United States was planning to invade Iran, under pretexts similar to those manufactured by the Bush administration for the invasion and occupation of Iraq. In the event, the US has yet to launch an attack on Iran, but it may prove useful to analyse whether the US attack will materialize. The Iran – US relationship grows darker with each passing day.
Prior to the internet report, which originated from sources within Russian military intelligence services, American investigative journalist and Pulitzer Prize winner Seymour Hersh reported that American Special Operation Forces were already operating inside Iran in preparation for a possible air ground attack (New Yorker, 24 January 2005). Hersh reported that current and former officials told him that one of the options being considered by the Bush administration called ‘for the use of a bunker-buster tactical nuclear weapon, such as B61-11, against underground nuclear sites’. (New Yorker, 17 April 2005). Hersh wrote:
‘Current and former American military and intelligence officials said that Air Force planning groups are drawing up lists of targets, and teams of American combat troops have been ordered into Iran, under cover, to collect targeting data and to establish contact with anti-government ethnic-minority groups.’ (New Yorker, 17 April 2006).
While Hersh’s report proved rare among American press reports, he wasn’t a lone wolf in the contemporary wilderness of American journalism. Michael T. Klare has published a series of reports in Tom’s Dispatch which outline the dynamics of the coming war between the US and Iran. Chief among these are Iran’s oil reserves, as well as tri-polar competition for dominance of world oil supplies between the US, Russia and China. For a variety of reasons, Klare writes that he is convinced that George W. Bush will announce the invasion of Iran at some point during 2007.

Thus, the question of when the United States will invade Iran is not mere idle academic speculation, but a deep and serious question which will profoundly affect international relations and the global economy. For this reason, the author feels it is important to investigate reports about the planned invasion, as well as to use Qi Men Dun Jia analysis to provide a forecast of when the invasion might be expected, and what that invasion will entail for Iran and for the United States.

When I received one such report over the internet, I took note of the time and devised a Qi Men Dun Jia situation. Qi Men Dun Jia is an ancient Chinese form of divination that was developed thousands of years ago for the purpose of devising military strategy. Based on the Yi Jing, Qi Men Dun Jia provides the means to determine whether and when an enemy will attack, as well as determine which side controls the stronger military forces, along with a good deal of other reliable information about warfare and battle. For this reason, Chinese emperors have relied on Qi Men Dun Jia to devise military strategy. Indeed, it is widely believed that the Ming Dynasty came to power largely as a result of the assistance of a general who plotted strategy in tandem with his Qi Men Dun Jia skills.

In the same way, it is possible to apply Qi Men Dun Jia to any military situation around the world to obtain information about the combatants on both sides – without the use of satellites, spy planes, electronic eavesdropping, etc. methods of modern warfare.

Qi Men Dun Jia relies on the position of the stars in the sky, as well as the position of the Earth in its orbit around the sun, to provide the basis for which to determine the answers to a wide variety of questions. Simply by noting the time when information is received, or for when an event is scheduled, it is possible to obtain a great deal of additional information about that event through Qi Men Dun Jia.

The report which finally sparked the author’s interest concerned Russian news stories picked up in European blogs before being translated into English: “Operation Bite: April 6 sneak attack by US forces against Iran planned, Russian military sources warn By Webster G. Tarpley.” When the author viewed this story on the internet, he immediately drew up the following Qi Men Dun Jia situation:

27 March 2007 @ 23:00 hours Beijing Standard Time



Analysis: The following is a highly technical discussion based on the symbols of Qi Men Dun Jia. The general reader may wish to skip this section and move on to the summary and conclusion section below.

Rong Enters Tai Bai in Gen 8 with an Hour Stem Ge in Gen 8 and one in Qian 6. One simple rule about warfare is that when an Hour Stem situation appears, one should not invade. The Hour Stem situation in Qian 6 clearly indicates that a US invasion at that time would have been a bad idea. In addition, when Rong Enters Tai Bai, then we know that the enemy will depart. The US forces present in Iran at this time were probably planning to leave Iran for Iraq or other locations.

The report by Seymour Hersh indicated that American Special Forces had already penetrated Iranian soil and were trying to build up resistance to the Teheran government. We may verify this by examining the location of Geng in the nine palaces. In this situation, Geng falls into Qian 6, which is part of the external pan during Yang Dun periods. Thus, if there were US forces within Iran in late March, then we might expect them to depart Iran for Iraq or other areas.

Geng below the stem indicates the Determinant Period for when the enemy may be expected to arrive. That is to say, it is possible to predict future events in Qi Men Dun Jia by examining the position of Geng in it palace location. Geng falls into the Earth Pan of Gen 8, which lies empty. Bing Wu month is the fifth lunar month of 2007, which includes late June and early July 2007. Thus, we may expect the US invasion force to be in their locations around Iran by mid-July at the latest.

The condition of Open Gate reveals information about the quality of Iran’s staff officers. In this situation, Open Gate falls into Kan 1 Water, where the gate has the characteristics of a secondary auspicious nature. Open Gate is engendered by the Zhi Fu, yet fails to curtail Geng. At best we may say that Iran’s staff officers are second rate at this time. Since Flying Snake falls into Kan 1, we may assume that the commander is one who commands three armies. The Tian Chong Star indicates that he may receive assistance from a general of divination.

Geng symbolizes the US as guest and falls into the Heaven Pan of Qian 6 with the Zhi Fu, which symbolizes Iran. The two symbols falling in the same palace indicates that neither side was victor nor vanquished. There is no Tian Xin Star in this palace, which indicates that neither side obtains Heaven’s Time. In fact, the Tian Xin Star falls into Kun 2, which lies vacant. Geng during the second lunar month (Chou ) Enters Grave. The US didn’t have the forces available to invade Iran.

The Tian Ren Star as the Zhi Fu: during 2nd lunar month of Chou is Prosperous (Gui Mao). The balance of forces around Iran during late March probably favored Iran over the US.

Six Together indicates the United Nations in Zhen 3 Wood, curtailed by Geng and the Zhi Fu in Qian 6 Metal. The UN lacked the ability to stem the conflict between the US and Iran at this time.

The Date Stem Xing falls into the Heaven Pan of Zhen 3 Wood while the Hour Stem falls into Kun 2 Earth. Wood curtails Earth, so if there had been a battle at this time, Iran may have won the conflict.

Nearly all of the above information that we have gleaned from this Qi Men Dun Jia situation indicates that:

1) early April 2007 would have been a decidedly poor time to invade Iran

2) the US lacked sufficient forces to invade Iran at that time

3) Iranian forces were probably sufficiently strong enough to have defeated any invasion mounted by the US at that time.

The information we may glean from this Qi Men Dun Jia situation does not end here, it is possible to project when the US might have enough forces in the region to attempt an invasion of Iran. After all, Klare, an expert on Iran, writes that he is convinced that George W. Bush will invade Iran at some time during 2007, which is not difficult to imagine.

The Hour Stem may represent the Determinant Period, and here Wu falls into Kun 2 Earth, which lies vacant. When the vacancy in this palace fills up, the war will begin. Thus, the war will begin during Wei or Shen months of 2007. In terms of the Western Calendar, Wei is the 8th lunar month (??) while Shen is the 9th lunar month (??), and this means a US invasion of Iran may come between early September and November.
Star Analysis

Star Character Sex Int/Ext Condition No. Vacant?
Tian Fu Educated Yang Int Rest 8 Vacant
Tian Ren Benevolent Yang Exter Prosper 6 Full
Tian Xin Upright, correct Yin Ex Discard 2 Vacant
Tian Qin Loyal, full of feelings Yin Int Prosper 4 Full
Tian Chong Coarse, swift Yang Int Rest 1 Vacant
Tian Ying Fiery, honest, merit Yin Int Mutual 3 Full
Tian Rui Poisonous, poor Yang Int Prosper 4 Full
Tian Zhu Crafty, low, cunning Yin Ext Discard 9 Vacant
Tian Peng Great evil Yang Ext Prison 7 Full
This chart shows the balance between male and female stars in this situation, or the Yin and Yang balance. The chart shows a slight advantage in masculine energy in favor of the US, but not enough force to defeat Iranian forces.

QMDJ situation for 27 March 2007 @ 23:00 Beijing Time

Analysis of “Operation Bite”
The Russian news story mentions an actual date and time for the so-called US invasion of Iran. While the invasion failed to transpire, the “false” date of the invasion may reveal additional information about the US invasion of Iran, whenever that invasion eventually takes place. An American story about the Russian story begins this way:
Mar 26, 2007, 01:02 WASHINGTON DC, — The long awaited US military attack on Iran is now on track for the first week of April, specifically for 4 am on April 6, the Good Friday opening of Easter weekend, writes the well-known Russian journalist Andrei Uglanov in the Moscow weekly Yrgumenty Nedeli. Uglanov cites Russian military experts close to the Russian General Staff for his account.

The article mentions an actual planned start time for the US invasion of Iraq. We may therefore devise a QMDJ situation based on this time to evaluate the rumors of the US invasion of Iraq.

Teheran lies 4.5 hours behind Beijing: 08:30 6 April 2007 Beijing Time


The Zhi Fu falls into Zhen 3 Wood, while Geng falls into the Heaven Pan of Qian 6 Metal, which lies vacant. The vacancy in the palace indicates that US forces have withdrawn from Iran. There is also a Flying Palace Situation and a Punishment Situation in the same palace.

Since Geng falls into Qian 6 Metal, which lies vacant, this fails to curtail Iran. The vacancy may be explained in that the US either had insufficient forces inside Iran or had withdrawn whatever forces it had placed near Iran up to that time, as reported by Seymour Hersh. Moreover, the Great Situation in Qian 6, indicates that the US must not invade.

Geng falls into the Earth Pan of Zhen 3 Wood. The stem above Geng indicates the Determinant Period. Ji You month is the eighth lunar month of 2007, which falls in between September and October of 2007. This is the second indication we have seen of an impending US invasion of Iran scheduled for September or October 2007.

View Gate engenders the Zhi Fu, while Fear Gate falls in Zhen 3 Wood with the Zhi Fu. Thus, Iran controls the two most important gates of the human pan, leaving neither to the US. View Gate forms a Fuyin in Kan 1 Water, so the supposed plan for invasion on this date may not prove at all credible, and was perhaps more the work of disinformation by Russian military intelligence.

The Tian Rui Star during Chou month is Prosperous, so Iran general is a Stubborn General. He is surrounded by supply vehicles and cavalry, most likely helicopters or light infantry.

Mystic Warfare falls into Qian 6 Metal, which is one indication of a US invasion of Iran. However, the palace lies vacant, so perhaps the US merely staged forces to scare the Iranians into believing that an invasion was imminent. Geng in the external pan of Qian 6 Metal indicates that the US was prepared to withdraw from Iran by 6 April 2007, or had already withdrawn forces inside Iran by that date. The US forces inside Iran’s borders at that time did not intend to remain permanently in Iran.

The United Nations is represented by Six Together in Kun 2, which lies vacant. Earth is curtailed by Wood, so Iran as the Zhi Fu in Zhen 3 curtails the UN. This indicates that Iran will hold out against the UN in terms of UN sanctions about nuclear energy and other weapons, the UN powerless to force the situation.

The Date Stem and the Hour Stem both are Geng, which does not reveal much about the relative strengths of Iran or the US invasion forces. If we examine the Earth Branches of the Date and Hour combinations, then Wu falls into Li 9 Fire while Chen falls into Xun 4 Wood. The Hour Earth Branch engenders the Date Earth Branch, which indicates that a US invasion of Iran at this time would have failed.
To summarize this Qi Men Dun Jia situation, we see that Iran held military superiority on this date, the US lacked sufficient forces to invade Iran, and if the US had mounted an invasion of Iran at this time, the invasion would most likely have been defeated.

Death Gate is the Zhi Shi for this situation, and in military divination, Death Gate indicates the registering of prisoners. Just prior to this date, Iran had released the British Royal Navy sailors and Marines who had invaded Iranian territorial waters.

View Gate indicates whether this report is credible: palace curtails the gate, but the palace is not vacant. View Gate in Kan 1 creates a Fanyin, so perhaps this report is not altogether credible. It is highly likely that the Russian military intelligence agencies hoped to provoke European and global public opinion against a US invasion of Iran, and so asked the well-known journalist, Andrei Uglanov, to publish the piece. While the report appears to be disinformation, this analysis has raised the specter of a US invasion of Iran later during the year, most likely in September or October of 2007, after the US has built up sufficient forces in the region to stage the invasion of Iran.



Summary

The above discussion, highly technical in nature, makes the following points:

1. If there were US forces within Iran in late March, then we might expect them to have departed Iran for Iraq or other areas in early April.
2. We may expect the US invasion force to be in their locations around Iran by mid-July at the latest.
3. If the US had invaded Iran in early April, neither side would have won a decisive victory.
4. The US didn’t have sufficient forces available to invade Iran in early April 2007, but may require several months to station forces around Iran.
5. A US invasion of Iran may come between early September and November 2007.

Conclusion

This report about an impending US invasion of Iran, entitled “Operation Bite,” was probably manufactured by Russian military intelligence to build international concern about a possible US invasion of Iran, which may take place later in 2007. The US lacked sufficient force in early April 2007 to invade Iran, but generals have since requested more troops for the occupation of Iraq, which could be used to invade Iran. Iran may have withstood a US invasion if “Operation Bite” were a genuine invasion plan. However, this might well have been a creation of the Russian military.


Information about this Article
Peer-review ratings (from 1 review, where a score of 100 represents the ‘average’ level):
Originality = 5.26, importance = 6.25, overall quality = 6.82
This Article was published on 19th May, 2007 at 08:12:58 and has been viewed 6850 times.

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.
The full citation for this Article is:
Sweeney, J. (2007). When Will the United States Invade Iran?. PHILICA.COM Article number 93.


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1 Peer review [reviewer #7116confirmed user] added 19th May, 2007 at 18:13:04

In the author’s earlier piece, “Qi Men Dun Jia Analysis of the Nicole Brown Simpson - Ronald Goldman Murders,” this reviewer raised the issue of time zones, which are not recognized by Chinese horology. I do not feel that it has been addressed. China itself, which extends almost as far West as Iran, is only comprised of one time zone; why we should assume that the Western system of time zones is relevant to international QMDJ analysis is not clear to me.

It is also unclear why the date of March 27 is relevant to this situation; apparently it simply represents the moment that the author discovered a news story while surfing the internet. The story’s byline is March 26th, and refers to a date in April. Should we infer that the geopolitics of Iran hinge on the moment at which *every* internet reader encounters a web story, or simply Mr. Sweeny?

Finally, it may be worth questioning whether QMDJ analysis has an empirical record of accuracy. As I am not familiar with the subject, I would not want to impugn its accuracy, but the author has yet to provide us with evidence to this effect.

Originality: 1, Importance: 1, Overall quality: 1




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